Project: Intra-hour prediction of solar electricity generation from Photovoltaics

Acronym PROGNOSIS (Reference Number: 91)
Duration 02/04/2018 - 01/04/2021
Project Topic The concept of PROGNOSIS is related to the development of a dynamic data assimilation model for nowcasting solar irradiance and cloud coverage without using meteorological data. This can be achieved through the utilization of dynamic real-time electricity data from a dense multipoint network of grid connected Photovoltaics (PVs). The primary key novelty (patent pending) is that through the development of a dynamic flow map of the power output of the PVs, irradiance/clouds/aerosols/etc, not only over the PVs, but over whole regions/countries can be visualized and predicted with high accuracy. PROGNOSIS will be mainly implemented in the energy sector as an operational management approach for precise intra-hour forecasts of solar energy production through an open communication protocol. It will be primarily be used in Building Energy Management Systems as an integrated tool for forecasting energy production and demand from the building and in the further development and management of city-wide microgrids. Additionally, it will be used as a service to large scale or aggregated PV managers, to provide them to system operators for capacity management and scheduling. Moreover, a database of the monitored data will be developed, that will be disseminated to various stakeholders groups. PROGNOSIS can also be used by other industries, such as agriculture, tourism, outside events, sports, aviation, film making, etc. Overall, PROGNOSIS is a tool which shall contribute to the objectives of the call and of the Declaration on Strategic Targets in the context of an Initiative for Global Leadership in Photovoltaics (Set-Plan). It aims to increase the flexibility of the electricity grid by integrating solar energy production and energy demand under the same platform, quantify the energy generation from small scale urban PVs on buildings and enable their management as aggregated systems and develop a high resolution solar database over the areas of the implementation of PROGNOSIS.
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Network SOLAR-ERA.NET Cofund

Project partner

Number Name Role Country
1 Cyprus University of Technology Coordinator Cyprus
2 Johnsun Heaters Ltd Partner Cyprus
3 Valencia Institute of Building International RDI Partner Spain