Project: PAlaeo-Constraints on Monsoon Evolution and Dynamics

Duration 01/06/2016 - 31/05/2019
Project Topic Monsoon systems influence the water supply and livelihoods of over half of the world. Observations are too short to provide estimates of monsoon variability on the multi-year timescale relevant to the future or to identify the causes of change on this timescale. The credibility of future projections of monsoon behavior is limited by the large spread in the simulated magnitude of precipitation changes. Past climates provide an opportunity to overcome these problems. This project will use annually-resolved palaeoenvironmental records of climate variability over the past 6000 years from corals, molluscs, speleothems and tree rings, together with global climate-model simulations and high-resolution simulations of the Indian, African, East Asia and South American monsoons, to provide a better understanding of monsoon dynamics and interannual to multidecadal variability (IM). We will use the millennium before the pre-industrial era (850-1850 CE) as the reference climate and compare this with simulations of the mid- Holocene (MH, 6000 years ago) and transient simulations from 6000 year ago to ca 850 CE. We will provide a quantitative and comprehensive assessment of what aspects of monsoon variability are adequately represented by current models, using environmental modelling to simulate the observations. By linking modelling of past climates and future projections, we will assess the credibility of these projections and the likelihood of extreme events at decadal time scales. The project is organized around four themes: (1) the impact of external forcing and extratropical climates on intertropical convergence and the hydrological cycle in the tropics; (2) characterization of IM variability to determine the extent to which the stochastic component is modulated by external forcing or changes in mean climate; (3) the influence of local (vegetation, dust) and remote factors on the duration, intensity and pattern of the Indian, African and South American monsoons; and (4) the identification of palaeo-constraints that can be used to assess the reliability of future monsoon evolution
Project Results
(after finalisation)
Website visit project website
Network JPI Climate
Call Call for Climate Services Collaborative Research action on Climate Predictability and Inter-regional Linkages

Project partner

Number Name Role Country
1 CNRS-LSCE Coordinator France
2 CEREGE Partner France
3 University College London Partner United Kingdom
4 Institut des Sciences de Evolution de Montpellier (UMR5554 CNRS-UM-IRD) Partner France
5 UMR 5805 EPOC Partner France
6 Laboratoire de Planetologie et Geodynamique de Nantes Partner France
7 University of Reading Partner United Kingdom
8 Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Partner Germany
9 University of São Paulo Partner Brazil
10 Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research Partner Germany
11 Stockholm University Partner Sweden
12 Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology Partner India
13 University of Edinburgh Partner United Kingdom
14 LOCEAN Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentations et Analyses Numériques/Pierre et Marie Curie University Partner France
15 Chinese Academy of Sciences Partner China
16 Helmoltz-Zentrum Geesthacht Partner Germany