Project: Scenarios for biodiversity and ecosystem services acknowledging health

Acronym BIOESSHEALTH (Reference Number: 72)
Duration 01/11/2018 - 31/03/2022
Project Topic The scenarios of the recent UN Emissions Gap Report show large gaps between the emission reductions necessary to limiting global warming and the likely emissions reductions from countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions. The scenarios further imply different future forestry. As forestry is a key reason for species loss, the scenarios also mean alternative impacts on future biodiversity. We ask, what are the effects of global scenarios of greenhouse gas reduction pathways on the future demand of wood from European forest landscapes? This is answered by global simulations of the UN scenarios. We further downscale the global demand to national- and landscape-level demand from boreal and temperate European forests. Given the landscape-level demand, we will identify compromise scenarios of forestry and conservation that give equal weight to economic profit, diversity of beetles, provisioning of non-woody ecosystem services, including human wellbeing in the form of stress reduction or recovery. This optimization work will also study extreme scenarios revealing major trade-offs. To accurately simulate central European forestry, and to understand interactions among trees (crucial components biodiversity) we further ask, how do species interactions modify the dynamics of mixed versus mono-specific stands? We also study beetles and non-woody ecosystem services. Concerning these responses, we ask whether they are explained by forest and climate variables and, for beetles, response traits and species-species associations. We show uncertainties using Bayesian modelling. Finally we ask, how do human stress reduction or recovery vary among forest types? The study provides an index to be used in the scenario simulations described above. Our transdisciplinary project has high societal relevance as revealed by the wide range of stakeholders already interested in co-designing and co-producing the project work, and in subsequently co-disseminating project findings.
Network BiodivScen
Call Scenarios of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

Project partner

Number Name Role Country
1 Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Coordinator Sweden
2 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Partner Austria
3 Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg Partner Germany
4 Norwegian University of Life Sciences Partner Norway
5 Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Partner Sweden
6 Technische Universität Munchen Partner Germany
7 University of Jyväskylä Partner Finland