Project: Developing and applying scenarios of biological invasions for the 21st century

Acronym	AlienScenarios (Reference Number: 77)
Duration	01/03/2019 - 30/04/2022
Project Topic	In AlienScenarios, we will evaluate for the first time the range of plausible futures of biological invasions for the 21st century. We will use complementary data and approaches, and different measures of impacts of biological invasions. AlienScenarios consists of seven highly integrated complementary subprojects: In Work Package I (WP I) we develop the qualitative narratives for plausible futures of global alien species spread in the 21st century – the Alien Species Narratives (ASNs). The ASN further serve as overarching concept to parameterize quantitative models of global (WP II, III), continental (WP IV) and regional (WPs V, VI) futures of biological invasions. In WP II, we will establish the first global mechanistic invasion model considering all relevant processes of biological invasions such as source pools, driver dynamics, and establishment rates. In WP III, we will assess the impacts of invasive alien species in terms of economic costs according to the different Alien Species Narratives developed in WP I. In WP IV, we will assess the consequences of different levels of implementation of the European Union Regulation on invasive alien species. In WP V, we will analyse changes of the functional composition of communities in mountain regions under different scenario storylines. In WP VI, we will extend the analyses to the Global South using Panama as a country-level case study. Finally, in WP VII the results of the other WPs will be synthesized, and the approach and results of AlienScenarios will be discussed with and communicated to stakeholders and the wider community. For doing so, we will establish an Advisory Board that will meet three times for two-day workshops, and we will actively use a range of dissemination and outreach activities. AlienScenarios will provide crucially needed insights for pro-active alien species management and policy. It will thus make an important contribution to global assessments and projections of biodiversity and ecosystem services, as well as regional policies (e.g. EU regulation on invasive alien species).
Network	BiodivScen
Call	Scenarios of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

Project partner

Number	Name	Role	Country
1	University Vienna	Coordinator	Austria
2	Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique & University Paris Saclay	Partner	France
3	Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research	Partner	Germany
4	Institute of Freshwater ecology and Inland Fisheries & Freie Universität Berlin	Partner	Germany
5	McGill University	Partner	Canada
6	Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung	Partner	Germany
7	University of Girona	Partner	Spain