Project: Developing improved social-ecological scenarios for biodiversity and ecosystem service changes in north temperate freshwater ecosystems over the next half century

Acronym LimnoScenES (Reference Number: 137)
Duration 01/12/2018 - 31/03/2022
Project Topic Freshwater biodiversity is under pressure from multiple global and local stressors. In temperate waters, climate change related stressors interact with land use and eutrophication pressures to create highly uncertain outcomes for biodiversity and ecosystem services (ES). Scientific analysis thus needs to be accompanied by continuous learning among stakeholders that enables adaptive management in the face of unexpected change. This project aims to promote learning and enhance scientific understanding on i) impacts of interacting stressors on water quality and multiple dimensions of freshwater biodiversity, ii) critical social-ecological feedbacks that determine the use and co-production of freshwater ES. We propose to develop a new generation of locally and regionally relevant social-ecological scenarios on freshwater biodiversity in three case study regions by i) integrating global and local stressors in ecological models and assessing their effect on ecosystem resilience, ii) developing participatory stakeholder visions for living close to water, iii) modelling the coupled dynamics from humans using, managing, polluting and restoring freshwaters. We build on existing collaborations with decision makers in Sweden, Germany, and Canada to co-develop scenarios that acknowledge the complex and continuously changing nature of freshwater systems and consider trade-offs among ES and other societal goals. Our project design supports an iterative process where insights from biophysical models feed into participatory scenario analysis and vice versa to identify critical feedbacks between ecological and social dynamics. Social-ecological simulation models and scenarios will serve as boundary objects to support transformative learning processes among stakeholders and within the interdisciplinary team. Altogether, this project is expected to support water authorities in their development of adaptive measures against current and future stressors, as well as for managing trade-offs and synergies among multiple ecosystem services based on freshwater biodiversity.
Network BiodivScen
Call Scenarios of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

Project partner

Number Name Role Country
1 Stockholm University Coordinator Sweden
2 Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries Partner Germany
3 Lund University Partner Sweden
4 Université du Québec à Montréal Partner Canada
5 University of Osnabrück Partner Germany